In a nutshell: Winters procedure

Winters’ method (often referred to as the Holt-Winters method) is based on Holt’s method and also takes seasonal influences into account. Like the Holt method, it uses exponential smoothing, but supplements the Holt method by taking seasonal influences into account. The process can handle seasonalities of any length. So it doesn’t always have to be a typical annual seasonality.

Our tip:

The winter method is of interest if the development of a time series to be forecast has a trend and a season. Never use this procedure if the trend and season are not available!

Picture of Prof. Dr. Andreas Kemmner

Prof. Dr. Andreas Kemmner

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